Thursday, December 23, 2010

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Monday, November 1, 2010

Post flood economy of Pakistan

According to World Bank, the direct damage of recent flood to property and crops in Pakistan will exceed $10 billion (which is more than the quarter of the country's national budget). While many of the areas of southern Sindh are still underwater many of the flood affecters are returning home in hope to rebuild their future again.

Economists are forecasting that at least $24-25 billion will be needed in order to rehabilitate the areas in stable form, but the rehabilitation process is going at a very slow pace. One alarming situation for the government is also being observed, that people are now least interested in what government is saying or doing and neither they are in hope that it will do any good for the masses.

On the other hand the economic situation of the country is getting worse day by day due to poor visions and governance issues of current democratic government. Recently SAFMA arranged a seminar on this issue and invited renowned economists of Pakistan namely, Dr. Ijaz Nabi, Dr. Akmal Hussain and Sartaj Aziz to share their views on the subject. We managed to record their version for my program "Maeshatnama".

Video shared below is discussing the pace of rehabilitation process and the concerns of the government from the journalistic point of view. Mian Shahid, commerce reporter of Waqt News is sharing his ideas on the topic with our host Syed Azhar Bukhari.

Dr. Ijaz Nabi, renowned economist and Dean and Professor of department of Humanities and Social sciences, sharing his views on the subject, that what necessary steps should be taken to smoothen the economic cycles while the country is facing both the economic crisis and rehabilitation process, in video shared below:

Sartaj Aziz, former finance, agriculture, foreign affairs minister of Pakistan and vice chancellor of Beacon House University, shares his views on the subject in video shared below.

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

Monetary Policy of Pakistan 2010-2011

In the last week of September 2010, State Bank of Pakistan decided to increase its monetary policy rate by 50 basis points to 13.5% for the period of October-Novemer 2010. Due to various crisis faced by the country the SBP officials are saying that it is necessary to tighten the monetary stance for the next couple of months. According to the current Governor SBP Dr. Shahid Kardar, “The monetary policy stance is formed by the consideration that the effect of continued inflation is substantial and felt by the entire economy. A tightening of the stance is thus called for in full recognition that the difficulty to contain fiscal deficit has resulted in the private sector bearing the full brunt of such an adjustment,”.

According to the SBP momentary policy document, the recent catastrophic floods have serious implications for macroeconomic stability and growth prospects. However, even before the floods, the macroeconomic conditions and outlook were looking fragile. By the end of FY10, inflation was high and the fiscal deficit had risen to 6.3 percent of GDP. Early assessments indicated that these pressures are unlikely to abate in FY11.

Few days before, I had recorded one of the episode of my program "Maeshatnama" on this topic and invited renowned economists Dr. Shahid A. Zia and Mr. Tariq Asmat to share their views on the topic, that what will be the after effects of such stances of the governments on Pakistani economic cycle.

Video discussing the earlier stances of Governer SBP and current policies, plus did the government had any other option to avail in current economic scenario:

It said that the next quarter would be crucial in forming an assessment of the effectiveness of government’s efforts to contain the fiscal deficit and its inflationary borrowings from the SBP and the banking system. There are assumptions that the process of tightening in monetary policy will further continue. Following video is discussing the after affect of such stance on the economy and inflation.

According to the economic gurus, in Pakistan only salaried class pays its taxes regularly, though due to the fact the salary is given after the deduction of the taxes to the employees, what are the benefits of increasing the tax net in country and what necessary steps should be taken in order to fulfill the targets of FBR, is discussed in the following video.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Threats to Self Reliance of Pakistan

Recently there were news about that Pakistani Banks had quitely written off Rs. 50 billion fresh loans outstanding against the borrowers during the last two years and at the same time, Pakistan's total borrowing from World Bank, Asian Development and IMF reaches $31 Billion.

Now seeing such figures one can easily think that on one side we are showing our so-called economic recession and asking for help in terms of loans or donations etc and on the other hand our banks are writing off fresh loans which a very high percentage. According to the figures given by Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed from 1947 to 2007 banks have been writing off loans with the average of 6.8 billion per year but during this "freshly" democratic government this average has reached to 25 billion rupees. Ofcourse, if we have to monitor the companies whom loans have been written off, we still their luxurious lifestyles but on paper who are unable to pay their debts.

Today I am sharing you the program "Maeshatnama" on this topic and it is being discussed by renonwned economist Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed while the program was moderated by Syed Azhar Bukhari and produced by me, Syed Nabeel Tirmazi.

Video discussing how can economy survive while on one hand we are generously writting off local loans and on the hand asking for grants, loans and donations from foriegn banks??

Video discussing role of Supereme Court of Pakistan in this issue:

Video discussing the role of State bank and does it need accountability:

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Interview of Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed in program "Meri Kitab Dunya"

Prof. Dr. Khawaja Amjad Saeed is a versatile scholar having more than 50 years of experience as economist. Written numerous publications and received various awards globally, is currently the principal of Hailey College of Banking and Finance and also serving as Professor Emeritus of Apex Group of Management Instituitions, Pune, India. As I am writing about this legend I am unable to write much about him , as he has been inspiration to many of us related to business, economics and Pakistan ofcourse and even in his 70's he is actively performing his mission and giving lectures worldwide. Recently we had the opportunity to interview him in one of my program "Meri Kitab Dunya" aired on Apna News, about book reading, he shared his precious experience with us. Below are the links of the program, I hope you will like the program and please do comment on the post. The program is being hosted by Rozina Nadeem while the production is directed and produced by me, Nabeel Tirmazi.

Dr. Khawaja Amjad Saeed discussing his thoughts about Book Reading and how it is important to have such trait in grooming one's whole life. Part 1

Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed discussing his childhood memories related to the habit of bookreading and his mission in the field of business education.

The Book reading segment by Dr. Khuwaja Amjad Saeed from his book "Economy of Pakistan"

Monday, October 4, 2010

Stock Market in Pakistan

Stock Market is said to be a barometer for any economy. Kenneth Chang said once, A market is the combined behavior of thousands of people responding to information, misinformation and whim, so in other words we can say that behavior of the market shows the different trends in economy. In recent years, there hasn't been a significant development in Pakistani stock market and so is in the case of economy. Today we are sharing videos on the significance of stock market in an economy and what are the potential opportunities and threats related to it. The topic was discussed in program Maeshatnama on Apna News by renowned economist and ex-executive of LSE Dr. Shahid A. Zia while the program was moderated by Syed Azhar Bukhari and produced by Syed Nabeel Tirmazi.

Relationship of Economy and Stock Market

Importance of Educating about Stock Market to Entrepreneurs

Giving Financial Educational to the investors in Stock Market

Thursday, August 5, 2010

H2O----High-time 2 Observe

By Rabia Tirmazi

Recently Finance Ministry of Pakistan has issued economic survey of 2009-10 that put blames of majority problems on water crisis in Pakistan. Almost every sector depends on water resources either its power generation, or agriculture. Economists had for seen that water crisis will get worsen in next 25 to 30 years. But government have turned blind eye by not giving importance to this large-scale issue. Although the GDP has increased to 4.1% in year 2009-10 compared to last year’s GDP of 1.2% but main sectors like livestock, agriculture has recorded drastic decline over the years due to serious water crisis. Pakistan is a rich country in natural resources and agriculture was considered to be the backbone of our economy. During 1980’s the contribution of agriculture sector was around 60% of GDP growth rate but this figure has declined to just 29%.  This sector is continuing a secular trend of decline over the past several years mainly due to the persistent negligence of government towards this sector.

Total population of Pakistan has increased to 173.51 million and according to a study the country has slipped below 100m3 of water per capita from year 2010. Water unavailability is however another major obstacle to the development of the country in terms of the food security, economic development and industrialization. The water shortage in agriculture sector alone has been estimated 29% for 2010 and 33% for 2025.

Despite all these issues, the current scenario have almost twisted now we have abundant of water in form of floods and heavy rainfalls but we lack water reservoirs and dams. Present dams and reservoirs are full to their capacity and are not enough to control floods. There was no pre-planning for water management our government was just stressing on problems not on solutions or infrastructure development. At the time of water crisis the major solution was to build water dams that could not only solve the problem of water shortage but could help in electricity generation as well. But this problem prolonged due to inter-provinces conflicts. Pakistani economy had to bear huge losses in form of providing the public with alternatives to solution, not the solution.

We have not just forgot the Swat operation in which millions of funds were being allocated for rehabilitation, shelter, maintenance and food purposes and all this happened due to poor security issue in Pakistan. Now once again we are on the same turn that huge funds will be allocated to rehabilitation of flood victims, infrastructure development, and concerning health issues. I am unable to understand where are the government five year plans for economic development? when millions and billions from budget have to be used for rehabilitation or support purposes. Water is neither the main issue nor the flood because it’s a natural disaster; actually it is high-time to observe where we are standing. This is our elected government which is not even eligible to be on their seats anymore. Since the time this government has been elected it has not solved a single issue either its security or energy crisis. Now more than 100,000 households need aid who have lost everything in floods.  All this happened due to poor disaster management and poor infrastructure development. This is high time to think over that it’s again a huge loss to our economy in the form of loss of valuable lives, severe damage to crops, agriculture, livestock sector, and destroyed infrastructure of roads and communication.

Our economy is desperately drowning due to the government’s poor management, ineffective policies and under-investment in critical sectors. These matters can not be deferred for much longer and will require enormous resources.